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According to some market analysts, even though there was a recent uptick in Bitcoin prices, this year of 2023 could be just as challenging as the last year. They claim that macroeconomic conditions are still sensitive and interest rates are rising, which would continue to put pressure on Wall Street and therefore the crypto market.
While experts have reason to believe that BTC has hit its lowest point, it is highly unlikely that it will rise back up to its all-time high of $69,000. In an interview with CNBC, Bill Tai, a venture capitalist and crypto veteran, stated:
There's a chance that bitcoin has already hit its lowest point and could start climbing back up again soon. However, I don't think the downside is over yet and it could still fall to around $12,000 before starting to rebound.
The analyst predicts that the 2024 halving event will cause the value of Bitcoin to rise above $32,000, setting the stage for a strong market in 2025 with a possible price of over $100,000.
According to PlanB, Bitcoin's bottom level was in November when it reached $15,500.
Cutting the number of Bitcoins distributed among miners in half is called Bitcoin halving, which happens once every four years. The halving system in Bitcoin was designed to minimise inflation and provide a deflationary system.
Let me brief you. The cycle of supply and demand means by the increase in price, users supply more and demand less, and by the decrease in price, the cycle moves in reverse.
Following this cycle, banks print more money to meet their economic needs, but printing money will result in inflation as time pass.
Bitcoin halving solves this problem as the number of BTCs will decrease, and there will be fewer Bitcoins over time.
You know that Bitcoin follows a Proof-of-Work model and rewards the miners (with BTC) for mining the blocks. Bitcoin halves the block reward in every 210,000 blocks, and as solving each block takes 10 minutes, BTC halving dates are every four years.
Let’s check out the following table, which summarises all the Bitcoin halving dates, block numbers and block reward changes.
Bitcoin Halving dates back to 2012 and will continue until 2040. Let’s review the details of each halving below.
The halving event occurred in 2012 when 210,000 blocks were solved by the miners who received 25 BTCs as block rewards. Their mining resulted in mining 75% of all the Bitcoins released. The price of Bitcoin was around $12.35 on the halving day on Nov 28, 2012.
The second halving of Bitcoin dates back to Jul 09, 2016, when 420,000 locks were mined. The reward included 12.5 BTCs, equalling 87.5% of all Bitcoins. BTC reached $650.53 on the day of the second halving.
May 11, 2020, marked the time of the third Bitcoin halving when 630,000 Bitcoin blocks were mined by the miners who received 6.25 BTCs as rewards.
By the third halving, 93.75% of all Bitcoins were mined. The price of each Bitcoin surmounted to $8,821.42 on this day.
The next halving, which is expected to happen on Dec 2023 or Mar 2024, will result in the mining of 840,000 blocks, which equals 96.875% of all the BTCs. The miners will be rewarded with 3.125 BTCs.
The fifth Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around 2028 when 1,050,000 blocks are mined, i.e., 98.4375% of the whole BTCs. The miners will receive 1.5625 BTCs for their work.
Upon the sixth halving, 1,260,000 blocks will be solved by the miners, who will receive 0.78125 BTCs as mining rewards. By 2032, 99.21875% of Bitcoins will be mined.
In 2036, we should expect the 7th halving of 1,470,000 Bitcoin blocks, which means 99.609375% of the whole Bitcoin supply will be mined. The smart miners who could get there will receive 0.390625 BTC, which is priceless as the price of each BTC will have skyrocketed by then.
The last Bitcoin halving is expected to happen around 2040 when 1,680,000 blocks of Bitcoin are mined, which equals 99.8046875%. The block reward will amount to 0.1953125 BTCs then.
As we’re in the final quarter of 2022, the fourth halving is about to happen in almost two years in 2024, according to the previous calculations. But according to reports, the fourth Bitcoin halving date will happen sooner than 2024, i.e., somewhere between December 2023 to March 2024.
The following image from NiceHash shows the next BTC halving countdown from today, Oct 30, 2022.
The first Bitcoin Halving dates back to Nov 28, 2012, when 210,000 blocks were solved. The miners, who mined 75% of all the BTCs, were rewarded with 25 BTCs.
First things first! The next BTC halving will not occur in 2024 but in December 2023 or March 2024. In this upcoming halving, 840,000 blocks will be mined, i.e., 96.875% of all the BTCs. The miners will win 3.125 Bitcoins as a reward for solving the block.
The final occasion of Bitcoin Halving will occur in 2040. By achieving this Bitcoin halving event, 1,680,000 blocks will have been mined, which amounts to 99.8046875% of the existing Bitcoins. In this final round, the miners will be rewarded with 0.1953125 BTCs.
We have said that Bitcoin halving dates are appointed according to a simple calculation, i.e., when 210,000 blocks are mined. As mining each block takes about 10 minutes, mining 210,000 of them takes almost four years. But why do Bitcoin halving dates change? Because of a significant jump in the Bitcoin mining hashrate.
Bitcoin halving dates are essential for two reasons. First, Bitcoin is the most crucial cryptocurrency, and every update will somehow affect the market. Second, data from the previous BTC halving indicate that halvings result in significant price increases.
Take the BTC halving in 2020 as an example. Before 2020’s Bitcoin halving, each BTC was traded at $8,500, but in a short time after the halving, it surpassed $27,000.
The following image is an analytical tweet from el_crypto_prof explaining there will be better days ahead for the crypto market. However, this is not a buy or sell signal, as many factors must be evaluated.
Although the previous data indicate that Bitcoin halving dates will usually be followed by a surge in prices, some experts do not agree.
Opposing crypto experts claim to have found a pattern showing that, in most cases, the increase recorded in the Bitcoin Binary CDD metric would be followed by a market crash. And currently, this metric is registering rises in prices!
Another point indicating a bearish signal is Bitcoin’s total exchange outflow, which has experienced dramatic decreases in recent weeks.
There are positive and negative views towards the Bitcoin halving dates closing in. It’s no secret that changes in Bitcoin will affect the crypto market, but make sure you evaluate all the options and affecting factors before making any moves in the crypto market.
In the meantime, you need to stay updated about the latest trends in the crypto market.
Now that we know the basics of Bitcoin halving, it’s time to check out some of the frequently asked questions.
Whenever 210,000 blocks are mined, the mining reward is cut in half to keep Bitcoin deflationary. Currently, it happens every four years. The third halving occurred in May 2020, and the next is expected to happen at the end of 2023.
Bitcoin halving reduces the number of Bitcoin, and with fewer coins remaining and potential miners dropping out, demand increases and therefore, the market value of BTC will rise.
Crypto experts believe that Bitcoin will finally hit $100,000, and it's more a matter of when not if. The following table shows the Bitcoin price potential high and low in the coming years.
Yes, roughly every four years, after every 210,000 blocks mined. At these intervals, the block rewards given to Bitcoin miners for solving the blocks will be cut in half, i.e., the rate of releasing new bitcoins into circulation is cut in half.
The software company MicroStrategy (MSTR) owns the most Bitcoin, with holdings of about 129,218 BTCs. The company’s BTC holdings were worth over $3bn by 22 July 2022. The electric car giant Tesla (TSLA) is also known to be a holder of Bitcoin.
According to the present schedule, all Bitcoins are expected to be mined and circulated by 2040.
The first reward ever given to a miner to solve the Bitcoin blocks was 50 BTC per block when Bitcoin was released in 2009. Every halving results in drops in the number of BTCs, i.e., they drop in half. For example, after the first halving, the reward for Bitcoin mining dropped to 25 BTC per block.
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